Effects of the Russia-Georgia Conflict

There are two must-reads today, one from the Wall Street Journal (which I've posted in full below) and one from the New York Times. The first piece describes the impact the Russia-Georgia conflict could have on the presidential race. The second describes how McCain has the campaign trail to himself this week while Obama and family vacation in Hawaii.

Georgia Conflict Tests Candidates on Foreign Policy

By Laura Meckler

WASHINGTON -- The violence between Russia and Georgia quickly thrust foreign policy into the U.S. presidential election, with John McCain standing to benefit and Barack Obama facing a more perilous situation.

The conflict was soon cast as "a 3 a.m. moment" -- a reference to Sen. Hillary Clinton's argument during the Democratic primary that Sen. Obama was unprepared for a middle-of-the-night phone call on a foreign-policy crisis.

As such, the conflict gave Sen. Obama the opportunity to show that he is indeed prepared, but it also gave prominence to foreign policy, one of the few areas where polling shows that Sen. McCain has a clear advantage with voters.

"It's a chance for both candidates to really seem presidential -- big P 'Presidential' -- for the first time," said Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. "The challenge is probably a little bit more pointed for Obama than McCain."

It wasn't clear whether the conflict will expand, or whether it will come to the fore in the minds of voters typically more concerned with close-to-home issues such as the price of gasoline.

"The truth is it probably won't have much impact at all -- the sad truth, perhaps," said Democratic consultant Mark Mellman. But he said that if the issue does affect voters, "it gives McCain a slight advantage."

That is because voters already see him as more prepared to handle this kind of crisis, a problem that Sen. Obama tried to rectify with a high-profile trip last month to the Middle East and Europe. While Sen. Obama has little foreign-policy experience, Sen. McCain was in the Navy, was a prisoner of war for 5 years and has long sat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"It is a real national-security crisis," said Nicolle Wallace, an adviser to Sen. McCain. She added that while much of the foreign-policy debate has centered on the war in Iraq, this is a reminder that other parts of the world hold peril.

Still, the crisis gives Sen. Obama an opportunity to prove himself by saying "the right things" and striking the "right stance and tone," said Mr. Campbell, the pollster.

The candidates' responses to the crisis were initially very different in tone. Sen. McCain forcefully blamed Russia, a country he has taken a hard stand on in the past. He has called for ejecting Russia from the Group of Eight leading nations and has mocked President George W. Bush's statement that he saw goodness in former Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sen. McCain said that when he looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, he "saw three letters: K-G-B."

"Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory," Sen. McCain said Friday morning. He credited Georgia for having called for a cease-fire.

Sen. Obama's initial response was more measured, not blaming either side. "Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war," he said.

Later Friday, Sen. Obama toughened his position, calling for restraint on both sides but blaming Russia for invading its neighbor. Saturday, he went further, saying, "Russia has escalated the crisis in Georgia through its clear and continued violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Obama foreign-policy adviser Michael McFaul, an expert on the region at Stanford University, said that at first it wasn't clear that Russia was entirely at fault. "I just don't think at that point it was useful to start assigning blame. The first thing you need to do is stop the violence," he said.

But the McCain campaign is pointing to the Arizona senator's initial statement as evidence that he got it right from the start. "[Obama's] first statement was very weak and did not distinguish between the aggressor and the victim," said Randy Scheunemann, Sen. McCain's top foreign-policy adviser.

The conflict, said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, "is an opportunity for American voters to get a sense of the way both candidates will perform in a very serious international situation."